With major events coming for the crypto industry in October and November, do the charts confirm that the market has bottomed out?
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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
The total trade volume of the crypto market has plummeted. This shows that the current owners are not willing to sell at the current prices. At the same time, the potential investors who are sitting on the sidelines don’t believe that it’s the right time to jump in.
This state of equilibrium is unlikely to last for long. Soon, one of the parties will be caught on the wrong foot.
If the cryptocurrencies break down of the critical support levels, investors might begin panic selling. Conversely, if the prices break out to the upside, those who are sitting on the sidelines will be likely to buy or miss out on the rally. This will draw more investors fuelling the upward move.
The forthcoming events in October and November can provide the much-needed boost. One event that will be keenly watched is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on the fate of nine Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), set to be made before Nov. 5.
Though the prices are still struggling near yearly lows, institutional investors have been backing new cryptocurrency-focused funds. Calls for a bottom in Bitcoin and other altcoins are being made by experts in the field. But what do the charts forecast? Let’s find out.
There is hardly any activity in Bitcoin as it continues to trade in a tight range on low volumes. This limited activity is unlikely to continue for long. Soon, we should see a large range breakout or breakdown and the start of a new move.
Currently, the BTC/USD pair is stuck in the range of $6,831.99 on the upside and $6,341 on the downside. The price has touched each of these levels twice.
A break out of $6,382 will invalidate the descending triangle pattern, which is a bullish sign. The next level to watch on the upside is $7,400.
On the downside, a break of $6,341 will attract selling and a retest of the critical support zone of $5,900–$6,075.04 will be on the cards. Below $5,900, we expect a number of stop loss orders to get triggered, quickly dragging prices to $5,450, and beyond that to $5,000. Therefore, traders should keep a stop loss at $5,900 on their long positions.
The story isn’t much different for Ethereum. It continues to trade inside a tight range of $200–$250.
The 20-day EMA is flat and the 50-day SMA is also turning flat. The RSI is close to the midpoint. Hence, indicators don’t give any insight on which way the price will escape.
A break out of $250 will indicate the formation of a probable 1-2-3 bottom, attracting aggressive buyers. The first target on the upside is $300, above which the bulls will again try to break out of $322.57.
On the downside, a break of $200 will sink the ETH/USD pair to the Sept. 12 low of $167.32, below which the selling will intensify. Traders should wait for a reliable buy setup to form before initiating any long positions.
Ripple is facing profit booking because it has failed to resume its uptrend after a short consolidation. The price is struggling to hold above the 20-day EMA, which is a negative sign. We had expected the cryptocurrency to bounce off the moving average.
Both moving averages have turned flat and the RSI has also dropped to the midpoint, which suggests a range bound trading action. The cryptocurrency might try to hold the 61.8 percent retracement levels of $0.45832, below which it will become negative. Therefore, traders can keep the stops on their long positions at $0.42.
Any bounce will face resistance at $0.55, and above that at $0.625. The XRP/USD pair will resume its uptrend only if it sustains above $0.625.
Bitcoin Cash has held the support of the moving averages for the past five days and is currently trying to bounce off it.
The BCH/USD pair will indicate a likely change in trend if it scales above $600. The first level to watch post-breakout will be $660, followed by a rally to $880.
On the other hand, a break down of the moving averages can result in a retest of the lows. Traders can keep a stop loss of $400, below which the virtual currency will resume its downtrend.
EOS has been trading above both moving averages, but hasn’t been able to break out of the symmetrical triangle. A breakout and close above the triangle will indicate the start of a new upward move.
On the downside, a break down of the triangle can sink the EOS/USD pair to the critical support of $4.493, with a minor support at $5. Therefore, traders can protect their long positions with the stop loss at $4.9.
If the virtual currency doesn’t break out within the next few days, it will invalidate the symmetrical triangle.
Stellar has been trading in a tight range between the 20-day EMA and $0.24987525 for the past five days.
If the bulls scale $0.24987525, the XLM/USD pair will face selling from the downtrend line of the descending triangle. The virtual currency will turn positive if the price sustains above the downtrend line.
On the other hand, if the bears break the 20-day EMA, the virtual currency can slide to the 50-day SMA and below that to $0.21489857. Traders can keep a stop loss of $0.21 on the long positions, below which the drop can extend to $0.184.
Litecoin continues to trade inside the range of $49.466–$69.279 since Aug. 8. The break out or break down of this two-months long range is likely to result in a meaningful move.
A breakout and close above the overhead resistance of $70 is likely to start a new uptrend that can propel the LTC/USD pair to the next level of $94.
If the bears break below $49, it will resume the downtrend that can lead to lower levels. The traders should wait for the breakout and close above the range before buying.
Cardano has risen above the 20-day EMA and is trying to break out of the 50-day SMA. If the bulls break out of $0.094256, the pair can rally to the overhead resistance of $0.111843.
If the bulls fail to break out of the overhead resistance, the ADA/USD pair might remain range bound for a few more days. The flat moving averages and the RSI just above the 50 levels shows a balance between the buyers and the sellers.
The balance will tilt in favor of the bulls above $0.094256 and will favor the bears below $0.073531. The traders should wait for a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above the overhead resistance before attempting a trade in it.
Monero remains in a tight range, close to $115. On the upside, it has not been able to sustain above $120 on the previous three occasions. So, if the bulls close above $120, a move to $128.65, followed by a rise to $142 is probable.
On the downside, $107.8 is a critical level, below which the bears will have an upper hand. The lower levels that can provide support are $103, and $96 below that.
The flattened moving averages and the RSI in the neutral territory point to a likely consolidation in the short-term. Traders can protect the long positions in the XMR/USD pair with a stop loss at $100. Aggressive traders can raise the stops to just below the first support at $106.
TRON has found a place in our analysis as it has become the 10th most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
The TRX/USD pair has been trading inside a range of $0.0183–$0.02815521 for the past two months. Currently, the bulls are attempting to break out of the range and start a new uptrend that has a pattern target of about $0.038 in the short-term.
The slowly upturning 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory shows that the buyers are returning. Still, it is better that traders wait for a close (UTC time frame) above $0.02815521 before initiating any long positions.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.